Transactions on Machine Intelligence

Transactions on Machine Intelligence

Designing a Foresight Framework for Proactive Contractual Claims Management in EPC Projects in Iran’s Oil and Gas Industry: A Hybrid Approach Based on Scenario Planning, Delphi, and Causal Layered Analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 M.Sc. in Project and Construction Management from Noor e Touba University, Tehran, Iran and contract management specialist at Petrosaze Mobin Engineering and Development Company
2 B.Sc. in Civil Engineering from Barajin Azad University, Qazvin, Iran and Project Manager for Maroon 1 and 4 of the Development and Maintenance Plan for 28 Reservoirs in the Southern Oil-Prone Areas of North Drilling Company
Abstract
Contractual claims management in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects in Iran’s oil and gas industry has traditionally followed a reactive and post-event approach, whereby contract specialists primarily identify, document, and quantify claims after a dispute has occurred. This approach imposes substantial financial, time-related, and legal costs on the parties in an environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainties, exchange-rate volatility, sanctions-related constraints, and the rapid evolution of digital contract management technologies. This study aims to develop a proactive framework for claims management by drawing on the literature and tools of futures studies. To this end, a hybrid approach integrating Global Business Network (GBN) scenario planning, a three-round Delphi method, and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) was employed. The findings indicate that the two driving forces of sanctions intensity and stability and digital maturity of contract management have the greatest influence and uncertainty regarding the future of contractual claims. Based on these drivers, four future scenarios were developed, along with a set of robust strategies, including the implementation of an integrated digital documentation system, the development of flexible contractual clauses, and the establishment of an early-warning claims monitoring team. The proposed framework can provide a practical foundation for owner and contractor companies in Iran’s oil and gas industry to transition from reactive claims management toward a proactive and foresight-oriented approach.
Keywords

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Volume 9, Issue 1
Winter 2026
Pages 65-73

  • Receive Date 25 December 2025
  • Revise Date 26 January 2026
  • Accept Date 03 March 2026